Prop record
Round totals, inside the distance and the method board: what the model makes them, against BetOnline's own quote. What would still make this wrong
Upcoming
The props that clear 2% against BetOnline's own quote Every market →| Bout | Bet | Price | Model | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Contender Series 2026: Week 7 2026-09-22 | |||||
| Marcos Degli vs Paris Moran | Over 2.5 rounds | +128 | 59% | 42% | +15.1% |
| Marcos Degli vs Paris Moran | Over 1.5 rounds | +109 | 63% | 46% | +14.7% |
| Callum Connor vs Piero Guaylupo | Over 1.5 rounds | -165 | 71% | 60% | +8.4% |
| Alvi Dasuyev vs Jaden Ortega | Over 1.5 rounds | +111 | 52% | 45% | +4.7% |
| Damian Piwowarczyk vs Emilio Quissua | Over 1.5 rounds | -101 | 55% | 48% | +4.3% |
| UFC Fight Night 289: Rosas Jr. vs. Barcelos 2026-09-26 | |||||
| Montel Jackson vs Ricky Simón | Over 2.5 rounds | -180 | 78% | 62% | +13.7% |
| Robert Bryczek vs Rodolfo Vieira | Over 1.5 rounds | -120 | 67% | 53% | +12.9% |
| Alatengheili vs John Castañeda | Over 2.5 rounds | -300 | 86% | 73% | +11.0% |
| Brady Hiestand vs Rinya Nakamura | Over 1.5 rounds | -167 | 72% | 61% | +9.6% |
| Melissa Amaya vs Tina Black | Over 2.5 rounds | -285 | 83% | 72% | +9.2% |
| Elves Brener vs Josiah Harrell | Over 2.5 rounds | -130 | 64% | 55% | +7.7% |
| Ailín Pérez vs Norma Dumont | Over 2.5 rounds | -500 | 90% | 81% | +6.4% |
| Christian Edwards vs Rodolfo Bellato | Over 1.5 rounds | -160 | 66% | 60% | +4.7% |
| Mickey Gall vs Sedriques Dumas | Over 1.5 rounds | -125 | 59% | 54% | +3.6% |
| Ilimbek Akylbek Uulu vs Mehemmedeli Osmanli | Over 1.5 rounds | -170 | 66% | 61% | +2.7% |
Walk-forward
The honest test: each year's model is rebuilt from scratch on only what came before, then bet on that year aloneDistance
| Year | Bets | Units | ROI | t |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 588 | +32.5 | +5.52% | +1.19 |
| 2025 | 790 | +52.5 | +6.65% | +1.56 |
| 2024 | 911 | +157.1 | +17.24% | +4.44 |
| 2023 | 1,107 | +110.1 | +9.95% | +2.68 |
| 2022 | 1,011 | +89.9 | +8.89% | +2.69 |
| 2021 | 760 | +35.9 | +4.72% | +1.31 |
| All | 5,167 | +478.0 | +9.25% | — |
Method
| Year | Bets | Units | ROI | t |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 97 | +11.0 | +11.34% | +0.55 |
| 2025 | 94 | +15.1 | +16.01% | +0.71 |
| 2024 | 100 | +68.0 | +67.95% | +2.55 |
| 2023 | 202 | +57.8 | +28.61% | +1.81 |
| 2022 | 88 | +24.2 | +27.50% | +1.04 |
| 2021 | 74 | +12.5 | +16.89% | +0.61 |
| All | 655 | +188.6 | +28.79% | — |
The record, by market
Held out since 2021-01-01| Market | Bets | Strike | ROI | t |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| the distance | 2,001 | 49% | +12.43% | +4.15 |
| 2.5 rounds | 1,848 | 61% | +5.36% | +2.45 |
| method board | 1,447 | 33% | +15.36% | +3.14 |
| 1.5 rounds | 1,105 | 62% | +11.96% | +4.25 |
| inside the distance | 227 | 48% | +33.61% | +3.11 |
| Everything | 6,628 | — | +11.75% | +5.50 |
By year
Every market together| Year | Bets | ROI | t |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 890 | +2.79% | +0.62 |
| 2022 | 1,279 | +8.09% | +1.91 |
| 2023 | 1,547 | +18.09% | +3.61 |
| 2024 | 1,138 | +20.55% | +3.62 |
| 2025 | 971 | +9.48% | +1.74 |
| 2026 | 803 | +5.52% | +0.91 |
How this works and what would still make it wrong
Two stages. The first learns how a fight ends from every graded fight in the database — 186,139 in the fit window, with no market input at all. It knows the weight class (43.9% of strawweight fights reach the cards against 19.8% of heavyweight ones), whether it is a women's bout (42.7% against 29.7%, and the gap survives controlling for weight), how often each fighter has finished an opponent, how often he has been finished, and what share of the scheduled clock his fights normally use. The second stage blends that single number with the book's own de-vigged price, two coefficients fitted on the priced fights.
Why it is built that way. The previous version used the market line as an input, so it could only be fitted where a price existed — 2,232 fights. Eleven coefficients on 2,232 fights is mostly noise, and an earlier evaluation duly concluded that every term added to the closing line made the forecast worse. Fitted on 186,139 instead and compressed to one number, it beats the closing line on all three distance lines and on the method split.
The three distance lines are one survival curve read at three points, so they are forced into order: a fight that reaches the cards has already passed 1.5 rounds. Fitted independently they violated that on 62% of fights, and the page was briefly offering "under 1.5 rounds" and "goes the distance" on the same bout. Method is P(he wins) × P(that method, given he wins) — the moneyline model, then the split.
What would still make this wrong. The walk-forward refits the coefficients each year but not the choice of features, and those were chosen while looking at this same period. Prices are BetOnline's own pre-fight closes, which are real, but prop limits are a fraction of moneyline limits — the constraint is how much you can get down, not the edge. Only the distance lines are walk-forwarded; the method and inside-the-distance records use the fixed 2021 cutoff. And t is computed across fights rather than bets, because the three distance lines on one card land together.