Model scorecard

How often the site's win chance has picked the winner since 2021 — every one of those fights predicted by a model that had never seen them. How it is scored

All of MMAUFC
Picked the winner 71.1% of 99,966 bouts since 2021
Elo alone 68.1% +3.0 points for the model
The market, priced bouts 70.3% model 68.0% on the same 15,832
Log loss, priced 0.596 market 0.568 · lower is better

Is 70% really 70%?

The favourite's stated chance against how often favourites that sure won
50% 50% 60% 60% 70% 70% 80% 80% 90% 90% 100% 100% The favourite's chance, as stated
Our model Elo alone Honest: said = happened

Year by year

Newest first; the market only where priced
YearBoutsModelElo Model, pricedMarket
202610,947 69.4%68.2% 66.8%70.6%
202517,778 71.3%68.9% 68.0%69.9%
202417,779 71.7%68.8% 68.7%71.9%
202318,901 71.3%67.9% 68.5%70.4%
202218,652 71.4%67.7% 67.6%68.7%
202115,909 70.9%67.3% 68.2%70.4%

By promotion

The twelve with the most bouts since 2021
PromotionBoutsModelEloPricedModel, pricedMarket
Ultimate Fighting Championship2,931 65.1%61.1% 2,929 65.1%68.4%
Absolute Championship Akhmat2,268 70.1%66.6% 1,084 66.1%69.6%
Octagon League1,768 69.0%63.9% 33 81.8%83.3%
Colosseum MMA1,549 71.5%65.5% 0 ––
Legacy Fighting Alliance1,450 70.0%67.7% 1,354 69.6%71.5%
DEEP1,219 64.3%61.7% 0 ––
Jue Cheng King1,133 67.1%65.3% 0 ––
Professional Fighters League1,060 70.4%68.5% 1,012 70.1%73.2%
Fury Fighting Championship1,029 67.9%67.3% 711 65.4%71.1%
Shooto1,005 65.3%62.0% 0 ––
Cage Warriors987 71.8%68.3% 970 72.1%72.2%
EFC Global858 69.8%64.0% 0 ––

Called it

The model favoured the market's underdog, and he won
  1. Abdallah Mohamed def. Mohamed Yosif Abdulrahman Brave Combat Federation 92 · 2024 78%market 6%
  2. Carlos Tardio def. Amari Sengsavanh LFA 228: Natividad vs. Garcia · 2026 59%market 7%
  3. Zayne Havener def. Travon Eller LFA 226: Allakhverdiev vs. Kropschot · 2026 52%market 7%
  4. Elton Dedaj def. Melvin Jovel LFA 232: Visconde vs. Pintos · 2026 52%market 9%
  5. Ethan Hughes def. Mahmoud Fawzy Sebie Bellator 271: Cyborg vs. Kavanagh · 2021 63%market 9%
  6. Lazar Todev def. Adam Pałasz OKTAGON 41: Mågård vs. Lopez · 2023 55%market 10%
  7. Weiqiang Yang def. Mohamed Alsameea Brave Combat Federation 84 · 2024 55%market 10%
  8. Gabriella Fernandes def. Cong Wang UFC Fight Night 248: Yan vs. Figueiredo · 2024 53%market 11%
  9. Tahir Abdullaev def. Shakhban Alkhasov UAE Warriors 50: AlQaisi vs. Bark · 2024 53%market 13%
  10. Nick Fiore def. Richie Lewis Cage Fury Fighting Championships 152: Galanti vs. Clayton · 2026 55%market 14%

Big misses

Its surest calls on priced bouts that did not come in
  1. Aleksandre Topuria beat Bekzat Almakhan UFC Fight Night 265: Tsarukyan vs. Hooker · 2025 96%for the loser
  2. Dariusz Kaźmierczuk beat Natan Marcoń Fame 18: Crusher vs. Ferrari · 2023 95%for the loser
  3. Laisa Silva beat Laryssa Leila LFA 234: Fernando vs. Soares · 2026 95%for the loser
  4. Sheikh-Mansur Khabibulaev beat Rodrigo Praia ACA 143: Gasanov vs. Frolov · 2022 95%for the loser
  5. Ilkhom Nazimov beat Roberto de Souza Rizin FF - Shiwasu no Cho Tsuwamono Matsuri · 2025 95%for the loser
  6. Eder Gama beat Aiden Lee CFC - Centurion FC: Glorias · 2023 94%for the loser
  7. Glody Kanzeko beat Alexander Olave EFC Worldwide 108 · 2023 94%for the loser
  8. Oumar Kane beat Anatoly Malykhin ONE 169: Malykhin vs. Kane · 2024 94%for the loser
  9. Łukasz Borowski beat Paweł Trybała FEN 34: TOTALbet Fight Night · 2021 94%for the loser
  10. Pedro Magalhães beat Jesus Basco WOW 26: Bilbao · 2026 94%for the loser

Recent cards

How many bouts the model called on each; cards with five or more rated bouts
GWC 1: Guanches Warriors Championship19 Sep 2026 7/8 Naiza Fighter Championship 85: Jaksygululy vs. Sadygov19 Sep 2026 6/9 Jue Cheng King - JCK Fight Night 12319 Sep 2026 6/7 Ice Cage 8: Ahmadi vs. Tuomi19 Sep 2026 5/8 The Battle Championship - The Broken Bones 219 Sep 2026 5/5 KSW 121: Vojcak vs. Wojcik19 Sep 2026 4/7 UFC 331: Van vs. Pantoja 219 Sep 2026 9/12 Unified MMA 69: Unified MMA18 Sep 2026 2/6 LFA 242: Lozej vs. Bittencourt18 Sep 2026 10/13 Ring of Combat 9118 Sep 2026 5/6 ACA Young Eagles 6817 Sep 2026 9/10 Fight Nights 141: Emilbek uulu vs. Smoyan17 Sep 2026 6/8

The live model quoted on the site is refitted each build on everything up to the last result, and held out it scores 70.1% overall and 65.1% on the UFC (66.4% and 61.1% for Elo alone). It does not use the market, and it does not pick bets — the betting model is a different thing with its own record.