In 5 days
UFC Fight Night 289: Rosas Jr. vs. Barcelos
· Sat 26 Sep 2026 · UFC
Valesca Machado vs Melissa Amaya
Valesca Machado
“Tina Black”
15-4 (1 NC) · -200
1,541Elo
vs
Strawweight
Melissa Amaya
“La Mamba”
8-0 · +167
1,484Elo
Our model
Market says
What is at stake
What each result would do to the ratings and the boardsValesca Machado
A win
+73to 1,614
Strawweight–
→#19
A loss
-102to 1,439
Melissa Amaya
A win
+102to 1,586
Strawweight–
→#27
A loss
-73to 1,411
Tale of the tape
The better of each pair is litValesca MachadoMelissa Amaya
1,541
Elo
1,484
1,234
KO rating
1,144
1,106
Sub rating
1,137
1,214
Dec rating
1,178
Wins by
5
KO/TKO
3
1
Submission
2
9
Decision
3
Losses by
0
KO/TKO
0
0
Submission
0
4
Decision
0
Prices
The current consensus across the booksValesca MachadoMelissa Amaya
-200Moneyline+167
--Win by sub+567
How long it goes
Over 2.5-285
Under 2.5+235
Decision-400
Inside+163
What the model makes of it
The model has no priced opinion on this bout.
How the line has moved
Valesca Machado's chance by each book's moneyline, margin taken out, over 4 days
BetOnline
Pinnacle
Other books
| Book | Valesca Machado | Melissa Amaya | Changes | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Opened | Now | Opened | Now | ||
| BetOnline | -101 | -200 | -115 | +169 | 32 |
| Pinnacle | -200 | -205 | +169 | +173 | 4 |
| Bet365 | -192 | -200 | +160 | +165 | 108 |
| BetRivers | -204 | -204 | +163 | +163 | 2 |
| BetUS | -190 | -200 | +158 | +166 | 20 |
| Bookmaker | -195 | -226 | +157 | +180 | 4 |
| Bovada | -198 | -198 | +168 | +168 | 2 |
| Caesars | -225 | -210 | +185 | +175 | 4 |
| Circa | -220 | -220 | +190 | +190 | 2 |
| DraftKings | -205 | -205 | +170 | +170 | 2 |
| Hard Rock | -200 | -200 | +165 | +165 | 2 |
| MyBookie | -197 | -218 | +140 | +167 | 6 |
Fight history
Every bout either man has on record, newest first. Amateur bouts are shaded. Blank means we hold no figure, not zero.
Valesca Machado
15-4 (1 NC) now · 20 bouts on record
Full profile →
| # | Date | Result | Opponent | Method | Round | Age | Elo | Opp Elo | Close | Weight class | Event |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | 2024-12-13 | W |
Yasmin Castanho
|
DecisionUnanimous | R315:00 | 28.6 | 1,512+29 | 1,384 | -400 | Strawweight | Invicta FC 59: Bernardo vs. Maia Invicta FC |
| 19 | 2024-08-09 | W |
 Yulia Ostroverkhova
|
DecisionUnanimous | R315:00 | 28.3 | 1,509+4 | 1,245 | -1250 | Strawweight | Invicta FC 56: Maia vs. Cantuária Invicta FC |
| 18 | 2024-02-22 | W |
Taylor Mauldin
|
KO/TKOKO/TKO | R10:49 | 27.8 | 1,437+72 | 1,374 | -240 | Strawweight | Urijah Faber A1 Combat 18: Mauldin vs. Machado Urijah Faber's A1 Combat |
| 17 | 2023-03-15 | L |
 Danni McCormack
|
DecisionUnanimous | R525:00 | 26.9 | 1,529-92 | 1,366 | -599 | Strawweight | Invicta FC 52: Machado vs. McCormack Invicta FC |
| 16 | 2022-11-16 | W |
Ediana Silva
|
DecisionSplit | R315:00 | 26.5 | 1,526+4 | 1,498 | -391 | Strawweight | Invicta FC 50: Strawweight Title Tournament Invicta FC |
| 15 | 2022-11-16 | W |
 Karolina Wójcik
|
DecisionUnanimous | R315:00 | 26.5 | 1,478+48 | 1,431 | -350 | Strawweight | Invicta FC 50: Strawweight Title Tournament Invicta FC |
| 14 | 2022-09-28 | W |
Liz Tracy
|
DecisionUnanimous | R315:00 | 26.4 | 1,432+46 | 1,378 | -200 | Strawweight | Invicta FC 49: Delboni vs. DeCoursey Invicta FC |
| 13 | 2022-02-19 | W |
Janelice Moraes
|
SubRear Naked Choke | R14:56 | 25.8 | 1,417+15 | 1,003 | -- | Strawweight | Arena Global 16 Arena Global MMA |
| 12 | 2021-10-19 | L |
 Piera Rodriguez
|
DecisionUnanimous | R315:00 | 25.5 | 1,426-9 | 1,508 | +284 | Strawweight | Dana White's Contender Series - Contender Series 2021: Week 8 Dana White's Contender Series |
| 11 | 2020-07-26 | W |
Karen Thalita
|
KO/TKOKO/TKO | R12:12 | 24.2 | 1,412+19 | 1,044 | -- | Strawweight | Shooto Brazil - Solidariedade Shooto Brazil |
| 10 | 2019-06-28 | W |
Maria Ribeiro
|
KO/TKOPunches | R314:03 | 23.1 | 1,313+101 | 1,365 | -- | Atomweight | Future FC 6: Cado vs. Giacomo Future Fighting Championships |
| 9 | 2019-05-18 | W |
Janaina Soares
|
KO/TKOKO/TKO | R11:00 | 23.0 | 1,278+35 | 1,037 | -- | Strawweight | WOCS 54: Jansey Vs Antunes - Watch Out Combat Show 54 Watch Out Combat Show |
| 8 | 2019-03-30 | W |
Lohayne Lopes
|
KO/TKOPunches | R27:37 | 22.9 | 1,235+43 | 1,042 | -- | Atomweight | Warriors Mix Challenger 1 Warriors Mix Challenger |
| 7 | 2018-09-28 | W |
Monique Adriane
|
DecisionSplit | R315:00 | 22.4 | 1,205+30 | 1,283 | -- | Atomweight | Shooto Brazil 88: Volta Redonda Shooto Brazil |
| 6 | 2018-05-26 | W |
Julia Polastri
|
DecisionUnanimous | R315:00 | 22.1 | 1,119+86 | 1,226 | -- | Strawweight | Shooto Brazil 84: Dias vs. Machado Shooto Brasil |
| 5 | 2017-11-26 | L |
Marcela Giantomassi
|
DecisionSplit | R315:00 | 21.6 | 1,143-24 | 1,089 | -- | Strawweight | Shooto Brazil 78: Silva vs. Douglas Shooto Brazil |
| 4 | 2017-06-10 | L |
Maria Oliveira
|
DecisionSplit | R315:00 | 21.1 | 1,097+46 | 1,365 | -- | Strawweight | A&FC - Angels & Fight Contest Brasil Fitness Show |
| 3 | 2016-10-08 | W |
Elaine Leal
|
DecisionSplit | R315:00 | 20.4 | 1,073+24 | 1,125 | -- | Strawweight | Champions Fight 5: Diego vs. Jose Nildo TF Team |
| 2 | 2016-05-07 | W |
Kakau Costa
|
DecisionSplit | R315:00 | 20.0 | 1,071+2 | 1,037 | -- | Catchweight | Fury Fight Rio de Janeiro Regional |
| 1 | 2016-01-30 | NC |
Nayara Hemily
|
-- | R315:00 | 19.7 | 1,071+0 | 1,064 | -- | Strawweight | New Corpore Extreme 4 New Corpore Extreme |
Melissa Amaya
8-0 now · 8 bouts on record
Full profile →
| # | Date | Result | Opponent | Method | Round | Age | Elo | Opp Elo | Close | Weight class | Event |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 2025-06-19 | W |
 Megumi Sugimoto
|
KO/TKOKO/TKO | R13:51 | 30.6 | 1,439+45 | 1,255 | -- | Strawweight | Combate Global - Combate Female 2 Combate Global |
| 7 | 2024-06-08 | W |
 Samantha Jean-Francois
|
KO/TKOKO/TKO | R28:44 | 29.5 | 1,363+76 | 1,318 | -- | Strawweight | Combate Global: Amaya vs. Jean-Francois Combate Global |
| 6 | 2023-04-01 | W |
Gillian Noll
|
DecisionMajority | R315:00 | 28.3 | 1,397-30 | 1,161 | -- | Flyweight | Combate Global - Greyson vs. Dayron Combate Global |
| 5 | 2022-10-30 | W |
 Alitzel Mariscal
|
SubArm Triangle Choke | R313:12 | 27.9 | 1,369+28 | 1,081 | -- | Flyweight | Combate Global - Horror in La Jaula Combate Global |
| 4 | 2022-07-01 | W |
 Naomi Tataroglu
|
DecisionUnanimous | R315:00 | 27.6 | 1,332+37 | 1,240 | -- | Flyweight | Combate Global: Jimenez vs. Sewell Combate Global |
| 3 | 2022-03-24 | W |
Yessica Ortega
|
DecisionUnanimous | R315:00 | 27.3 | 1,312+20 | 1,141 | -- | Flyweight | Combate Global: Mexico vs. USA Combate Global |
| 2 | 2021-11-12 | W |
Andrea Amaro
|
SubRear Naked Choke | R14:00 | 27.0 | 1,247+65 | 1,155 | -- | Strawweight | Combate Global - USA vs. Mexico Tournament Combate Global |
| 1 | 2021-10-22 | W |
Gisselle Garcia Villanueva
|
KO/TKOKO/TKO | R12:11 | 26.9 | 1,159+88 | 1,159 | -- | Bantamweight | Combate Global - Montanez vs. Hernandez Combate Global |