Result UFC Fight Night 40: Brown vs. Silva · Sat 10 May 2014 · Ultimate Fighting Championship

Ed Herman vs Rafael Natal

Elo
47%53%
Market said
46%54%

The scorecards

Every score reads Ed Herman first; a round is coloured for whoever won it
Judge R1R2R3Total
Cardo Urso 10-910-910-9 30-27
Rick Winter 9-1010-910-9 29-28
Daryl Wise 9-1010-910-9 29-28
Media
5 2 5
5 of 12 media members scored it for Ed Herman, 2 a draw; the most common card was 29-28 to Rafael Natal
Fans
38% 12% 50%
38% of fans had Ed Herman winning, from 16 votes; the most picked score was 29-28 to Rafael Natal (44%)

Elo counted this as 51% of a win for Ed Herman — from these scorecards.

Tale of the tape

The better of each pair is lit
Ed HermanRafael Natal
1,641 Elo 1,659
1,272 KO rating 1,069
1,353 Sub rating 1,385
1,190 Dec rating 1,320
Wins by
5 KO/TKO 3
13 Submission 8
3 Decision 6
Losses by
1 KO/TKO 4
6 Submission 0
3 Decision 1

Prices

The closing prices; the outcome that happened is outlined
Ed HermanRafael Natal
+105 Moneyline -132

What the betting model makes of it

At the prices above

The model has no priced opinion on this bout.

Fight history

Every bout either man has on record, newest first. This one is marked; the rows above it came afterwards and were not known on the night. Amateur bouts are shaded. Blank means we hold no figure, not zero.

Ed Herman 21-10 (1 NC) going in · 39 bouts on record before this one Full profile →
#DateResultOpponent MethodRoundAge Elo Opp Elo Close Weight classEvent
50 2023-04-15 L Zak Cummings KO/TKOCombination Punches R314:13 42.5 1,628-61 1,738 +195 Light Heavyweight UFC on ESPN 44: Holloway vs. Allen Ultimate Fighting Championship
49 2021-08-07 L Alonzo Menifield DecisionUnanimous R315:00 40.8 1,758-108 1,676 +205 Light Heavyweight UFC 265: Lewis vs. Gane Ultimate Fighting Championship
48 2020-09-12 W Mike Rodriguez SubKimura R312:41 39.9 1,712+46 1,532 +195 Light Heavyweight UFC Fight Night 177: Waterson vs. Hill Ultimate Fighting Championship
47 2019-11-09 W Khadis Ibragimov DecisionUnanimous R315:00 39.1 1,668+44 1,524 +142 Light Heavyweight UFC Fight Night 163: Magomedsharipov vs. Kattar Ultimate Fighting Championship
46 2019-05-18 W Patrick Cummins KO/TKOKnee & Punches R13:39 38.6 1,600+69 1,525 +198 Light Heavyweight UFC Fight Night 152: Dos Anjos vs. Lee Ultimate Fighting Championship
45 2018-10-27 L Gian Villante DecisionSplit R315:00 38.1 1,577+22 1,693 +203 Light Heavyweight UFC Fight Night 138: Oezdemir vs. Smith Ultimate Fighting Championship
44 2017-07-07 L C.B. Dollaway DecisionUnanimous R315:00 36.8 1,613-26 1,652 +148 Light Heavyweight UFC: The Ultimate Fighter 25 Finale Ultimate Fighting Championship
43 2016-07-30 L Nikita Krylov KO/TKOHead Kick R25:40 35.8 1,673-60 1,786 +180 Light Heavyweight UFC 201: Lawler vs. Woodley Ultimate Fighting Championship
42 2016-01-17 W Tim Boetsch KO/TKOKnee & Punches R26:39 35.3 1,573+100 1,623 +192 Light Heavyweight UFC Fight Night 81: Dillashaw vs. Cruz Ultimate Fighting Championship
41 2015-01-31 L Derek Brunson KO/TKOPunches R10:36 34.3 1,646-74 1,702 +347 Middleweight UFC 183: Silva vs. Diaz Ultimate Fighting Championship
40 2014-05-10 W Rafael Natal this fight DecisionUnanimous R315:00 33.6 1,641+6 1,659 +105 Middleweight UFC Fight Night 40: Brown vs. Silva Ultimate Fighting Championship
39 2013-11-16 L Thales Leites DecisionUnanimous R315:00 33.1 1,688-47 1,812 +179 Middleweight UFC 167: St. Pierre vs. Hendricks Ultimate Fighting Championship
38 2013-07-27 W Trevor Smith DecisionSplit R315:00 32.8 1,674+14 1,530 -260 Middleweight UFC on Fox 8: Johnson vs. Moraga Ultimate Fighting Championship
37 2013-01-12 L Ronaldo Souza SubKimura R13:10 32.3 1,714-40 1,923 +284 Middleweight Strikeforce: Marquardt vs. Saffiedine Strikeforce
36 2012-08-11 NC Jake Shields Decision R315:00 31.9 1,805-91 1,792 +167 Middleweight UFC 150: Henderson vs. Edgar 2 Ultimate Fighting Championship
35 2012-02-04 W Clifford Starks SubRear Naked Choke R26:43 31.3 1,760+45 1,577 -302 Middleweight UFC 143: Diaz vs. Condit Ultimate Fighting Championship
34 2011-08-14 W Kyle Noke SubKneebar R14:15 30.9 1,651+109 1,738 -- Middleweight UFC Live 5: Hardy vs. Lytle Ultimate Fighting Championship
33 2011-06-04 W Tim Credeur KO/TKOPunches R10:48 30.7 1,546+104 1,614 -- Middleweight UFC: The Ultimate Fighter 13 Finale Ultimate Fighting Championship
32 2009-08-29 L Aaron Simpson KO/TKOKnee Injury R25:17 28.9 1,703-135 1,491 -- Middleweight UFC 102: Couture vs. Nogueira Ultimate Fighting Championship
31 2009-04-18 W David Loiseau DecisionUnanimous R315:00 28.5 1,593+110 1,683 -- Middleweight UFC 97: Redemption Ultimate Fighting Championship
30 2008-09-17 L Alan Belcher DecisionSplit R315:00 28.0 1,616-22 1,520 -- Middleweight UFC Fight Night 15: Diaz vs. Neer Ultimate Fighting Championship
29 2008-04-19 L Demian Maia SubTriangle Choke R27:27 27.5 1,728-112 1,626 -- Middleweight UFC 83: Serra vs. St. Pierre 2 Ultimate Fighting Championship
28 2007-11-17 W Joe Doerksen KO/TKOPunch R310:39 27.1 1,629+99 1,674 -- Middleweight UFC 78: Validation Ultimate Fighting Championship
27 2007-06-16 W Scott Smith SubRear Naked Choke R27:25 26.7 1,570+59 1,454 -- Middleweight UFC 72: Victory Ultimate Fighting Championship
26 2007-01-25 W Chris Price SubArmbar R12:58 26.3 1,521+49 1,357 -- Middleweight UFC Fight Night 8: Evans vs. Salmon Ultimate Fighting Championship
25 2006-10-10 L Jason MacDonald SubTriangle Choke R12:43 26.0 1,647-126 1,484 -- Middleweight UFC Fight Night 6.5: Ortiz vs. Shamrock 3 Ultimate Fighting Championship
24 2006-06-24 L Kendall Grove DecisionUnanimous R315:00 25.7 1,690-42 1,413 -- Middleweight UFC: The Ultimate Fighter 3 Finale Ultimate Fighting Championship
23 2006-02-22 W Rory Singer SubRear Naked Choke R27:31 25.4 1,652+38 1,429 -- Middleweight UFC - The Ultimate Fighter Season 3 Semifinals, Day 2 The Ultimate Fighter
22 2006-02-14 W Danny Abbadi SubArmbar R14:20 25.4 1,643+8 1,125 -- Middleweight UFC - The Ultimate Fighter Season 3 Quarterfinals, Day 7 The Ultimate Fighter
21 2005-07-23 W Dave Menne KO/TKOGroin Injury R15:00 24.8 1,603+40 1,393 -- Middleweight Extreme Challenge 63 Extreme Challenge
20 2005-06-17 W Nick Thompson KO/TKOInjury R1 24.7 1,523+80 1,494 -- -- Hand 2 Hand Combat Ohio Regional
19 2005-04-30 W Rhomez Brower SubArmbar R12:47 24.6 1,511+12 1,053 -- Middleweight IFC 23: Mayhem In Montana International Fighting Championship
18 2005-03-26 W Glover Teixeira DecisionUnanimous R315:00 24.5 1,504+6 1,259 -- Open Weight SportFight 9: Respect SportFight
17 2004-10-23 L Joe Doerksen SubTriangle Choke R312:12 24.1 1,593-88 1,590 -- Middleweight SportFight 7: Frightnight SportFight
16 2004-08-28 W Brian Ebersole SubTriangle Choke R25:00 23.9 1,493+100 1,543 -- Middleweight SportFight 5: Stadium SportFight
15 2004-07-25 L Kazuo Misaki SubArm Triangle Choke R28:31 23.8 1,574-81 1,599 -- Middleweight Pancrase 137 Pancrase
14 2004-06-26 W Shane Davis SubArmbar R310:51 23.7 1,537+37 1,310 -- Middleweight SportFight 4: Fight For Freedom SportFight
13 2004-06-03 W Cory Devela SubArmbar R13:20 23.7 1,507+30 1,232 -- -- PFA - Pride and Fury Idaho Regional
12 2004-04-17 W Jacen Flynn SubArmbar R28:48 23.5 1,467+40 1,257 -- Open Weight SportFight 3: Dome SportFight
11 2004-04-03 W Justin Hawes SubArmbar R28:45 23.5 1,440+27 1,145 -- Middleweight Desert Brawl 10: Schultz vs. Gilardi Desert Brawl
10 2004-02-21 W Derek Downey KO/TKOPunches R312:14 23.4 1,335+104 1,403 -- Middleweight SportFight 1: Revolution SportFight
9 2004-01-03 W Rich Guerin SubKeylock R417:17 23.3 1,214+121 1,355 -- -- PPKA: Ultimate Fight Night 3 Pacific Pankration Kickboxing Association
8 2003-11-08 W Ryan Pope SubArmbar R10:24 23.1 1,141+73 1,181 -- Middleweight Desert Brawl 9: Hallman vs. Taylor Desert Brawl am
7 2003-08-23 L Shane Davis SubArmbar R12:18 22.9 1,253-112 1,154 -- -- SportFight: Second Coming SportFight
6 2003-06-07 W Nick Frazier KO/TKOPunches R11:05 22.7 1,218+35 1,042 -- -- FCFF - Rumble at the Roseland 8 Full Contact Fighting Federation am
5 2003-05-10 W Ryan Pope SubArmbar R12:38 22.6 1,175+43 1,049 -- -- Xtreme Ring Wars 2 Xtreme Ring Wars am
4 2003-04-19 W Jessi Ward SubSubmission R14:38 22.5 1,129+47 1,026 -- -- FCFF - Rumble at the Roseland 7 Full Contact Fighting Federation am
3 2003-02-28 L Andrew Taylor DecisionSplit R315:00 22.4 1,147-19 1,090 -- -- UFCF: Everett Extreme Challenge 7 United Full Contact Federation am
2 2002-11-09 W Byron Yates SubKimura R23:00 22.1 1,082+65 1,079 -- -- UFCF: Everett Extreme Challenge 6 United Full Contact Federation am
1 2002-10-05 W Noel Tworek KO/TKOPunches R1 22.0 1,017+66 1,017 -- -- FCFF: Fight Night 2 Full Contact Fighting Federation am
Rafael Natal 17-5-1 going in · 23 bouts on record before this one Full profile →
#DateResultOpponent MethodRoundAge Elo Opp Elo Close Weight classEvent
31 2017-07-22 L Eryk Anders KO/TKOPunches R12:54 34.6 1,646-93 1,624 -102 Middleweight UFC on Fox 25: Weidman vs. Gastelum Ultimate Fighting Championship
30 2016-11-12 L Tim Boetsch KO/TKOPunches R13:22 33.9 1,759-114 1,652 -155 Middleweight UFC 205: Alvarez vs. McGregor Ultimate Fighting Championship
29 2016-04-23 L Robert Whittaker DecisionUnanimous R315:00 33.3 1,806-47 1,928 +257 Middleweight UFC 197: Jones vs. St. Preux Ultimate Fighting Championship
28 2016-01-30 W Kevin Casey KO/TKOGround & Pound R313:37 33.1 1,714+92 1,733 -171 Middleweight UFC on Fox 18: Johnson vs. Bader Ultimate Fighting Championship
27 2015-05-23 W Uriah Hall DecisionSplit R315:00 32.4 1,716-2 1,780 +228 Middleweight UFC 187: Johnson vs. Cormier Ultimate Fighting Championship
26 2015-01-31 W Tom Watson DecisionUnanimous R315:00 32.1 1,626+90 1,636 -170 Middleweight UFC 183: Silva vs. Diaz Ultimate Fighting Championship
25 2014-09-05 W Chris Camozzi DecisionSplit R315:00 31.7 1,654-28 1,578 -170 Middleweight UFC Fight Night 50: Jacare vs. Mousasi 2 Ultimate Fighting Championship
24 2014-05-10 L Ed Herman this fight DecisionUnanimous R315:00 31.4 1,659-6 1,641 -132 Middleweight UFC Fight Night 40: Brown vs. Silva Ultimate Fighting Championship
23 2013-11-06 L Tim Kennedy KO/TKOPunches R14:40 30.9 1,718-59 1,835 +260 Middleweight UFC Fight Night 31: Fight for the Troops 3 Ultimate Fighting Championship
22 2013-09-04 W Tor Troéng DecisionUnanimous R315:00 30.7 1,628+91 1,640 -259 Middleweight UFC Fight Night 28: Teixeira vs. Bader Ultimate Fighting Championship
21 2013-05-18 W João Zeferino DecisionUnanimous R315:00 30.4 1,625+2 1,500 -344 Middleweight UFC on FX 8: Belfort vs. Rockhold Ultimate Fighting Championship
20 2013-01-26 W Sean Spencer SubArm Triangle Choke R312:13 30.1 1,546+79 1,513 -250 Middleweight UFC on Fox 6: Johnson vs. Dodson Ultimate Fighting Championship
19 2012-07-11 L Andrew Craig KO/TKOHead Kick R29:52 29.5 1,644-97 1,605 +134 Middleweight UFC on Fuel TV 4: Munoz vs. Weidman Ultimate Fighting Championship
18 2012-02-04 W Michael Kuiper DecisionUnanimous R315:00 29.1 1,617+27 1,492 -227 Middleweight UFC 143: Diaz vs. Condit Ultimate Fighting Championship
17 2011-08-06 W Paul Bradley DecisionUnanimous R315:00 28.6 1,562+55 1,629 -- Middleweight UFC 133: Evans vs. Ortiz 2 Ultimate Fighting Championship
16 2010-12-11 D Jesse Bongfeldt DecisionMajority R315:00 28.0 1,521+41 1,645 -- Middleweight UFC 124: St. Pierre vs. Koscheck 2 Ultimate Fighting Championship
15 2010-09-15 L Rich Attonito DecisionUnanimous R315:00 27.7 1,578-57 1,464 -- Middleweight UFC Fight Night 22: Marquardt vs. Palhares Ultimate Fighting Championship
14 2010-05-21 W Travis Lutter KO/TKOPunches R14:12 27.4 1,448+130 1,631 -- Middleweight Moosin: Sylvia vs Pudzianowski
13 2009-09-11 W Allan Weickert SubRear Naked Choke R12:53 26.7 1,419+29 1,135 -- Middleweight Ring of Combat 26 Ring of Combat
12 2009-06-12 L Victor O'Donnell KO/TKODoctor Stoppage R15:00 26.5 1,471-51 1,624 -- Middleweight Ring of Combat 25 Ring of Combat
11 2009-04-17 W Plinio Cruz SubRear Naked Choke R28:13 26.3 1,436+34 1,191 -- Middleweight Ring of Combat 24 Ring of Combat
10 2009-02-20 W Alexandre Moreno KO/TKOPunch R13:59 26.2 1,359+78 1,320 -- Middleweight Ring of Combat 23 Ring of Combat
9 2008-11-28 W Jon Kirk SubRear-Naked Choke R13:19 25.9 1,276+82 1,255 -- -- SWC 2: Battleground Supreme Warrior Championship
8 2008-07-12 L Eduardo Telles KO/TKOHead Kick R2 25.5 1,419-143 1,161 -- -- Fury FC 6: High Voltage Rio de Janeiro Regional
7 2007-08-11 W Silmar Rodrigo DecisionUnanimous R315:00 24.6 1,363+56 1,348 -- -- Mo Team League 1 Brazil Regional
6 2007-04-29 W Nailson Bahia SubArmbar R11:24 24.3 1,325+39 1,106 -- -- XFC - Brazil Brazil Regional
5 2007-04-29 W Gerson Conceição Decision R110:00 24.3 1,321+4 1,103 -- -- XFC - Brazil Brazil Regional
4 2006-05-20 W Danillo Villefort KO/TKOPunches R1 23.4 1,217+104 1,283 -- -- GFC 1: Gold Fighters Championship Rio de Janeiro Regional
3 2005-10-01 W Carlos Eduardo Santos SubGuillotine Choke R2 22.8 1,168+49 1,002 -- -- Wild Fight 1 Minas Gerais Regional
2 2005-05-06 W Emerson Avila SubRear Naked Choke R11:58 22.4 1,097+71 1,031 -- -- Champions Night 12 Sao Paulo Regional
1 2005-05-06 W Walter Luis SubKeylock R2 22.4 1,010+87 1,010 -- -- Champions Night 12 Sao Paulo Regional